2.5 weeks ago Italy had 323 cases – yesterday they had 9,172 and moved into lockdown today. Today UK has 321 cases and pretty much the same as where Italy was 3 weeks ago. People are still be allowed back from affected areas whereas other countries e.g. Austria has put a total ban on people coming from Italy without a Dr’s certificate. UK gov has delayed a decision to close down schools, public events etc – our prediction – are western nations holding out for Easter holidays that starts that break in 3 weeks time on Friday 3rd April – Easter Friday 10th.
We suggest, it will get worse over the next two weeks and stock markets will fall further until Government and Central Banks take action.
If you are cash parked or have considerable funds held in cash for ‘opportunity’ investing you may choose to invest soon or hold and wait. Nobody can call the market or indeed the risk of virus spread and market falls, so either way we are all gambling. We have made our decision to invest now as most markets fell well below their year lows but you must make your own decision, we cannot make this for you.
If you are already invested and have suffered losses, know that markets will recover as soon as a vaccine is delivered, expected in the summer. Quantitative easing could push markets even higher, so you may choose to ride it out. Remember, you have only physically made a loss if you actually cash in or switch out of markets into safe havens.