How Do We Crystal Ball Gaze for Investment Opportunities?
Published / Last Updated on 13/07/2021
Forecasting future growth areas, markets and trends is not just about statistical analysis as many would have you believe. If it was then investors, fund managers and governments would be able, with ease, to predict future markets trends, growth or indeed stock market crashes. Our crystal ball sources ...
We do look at the numbers but we also look at other key areas:
Demographics
The movement and likely movement of people e.g. 15 months ago we predicted a boom in holiday let and coastal accommodation. Back in 2016, as we deal with people all over the UK, we saw that people outside London were totally disconnected to Europe having not really benefitted from EU membership whereas London had. Is it a shock that Grimsby, which used to have the largest fishing fleet in the World in 1973 (UK joins EU) and now only has a handful of vessels registered there voted to leave the EU? Is it any wonder that London, the World’s capital for finance and law and has benefitted massively from Europe, voted to remain?
Government Actions
This is not about what governments have passed in law or second guessing the contents of the next Budget, this is about looking at what ‘consultation papers’ government departments are issuing. A consultation paper will receive feedback and then governments will form their policy to become law over the coming years.
Trends
What is the latest trend, what will be the next trend? Covid 19 has created many, including home working and perhaps limited ‘in office’ working. We have already suggested there may be a boom in city centre and commuter belt flats and apartments as people move to the coast or country but need to be in office, in the city for 1 or 2 days a week only. On the high street, shopping habits have changed. We buy much more online. Is the high street now about leisure or indeed solving the housing crisis with easier planning rules to convert commercial property into residential use?
Look at the Past
In January 2020 we published a video about our concerns for coronavirus and a market crash having looked back to the 2002/03 SARS virus and its 30% market falls. Back in 1980s both UK and US had record public sector debt. What did Thatcher and Reagan do? Created an inflation bubble economy, house prices sky rocketed, stock markets trebled, yuppies appeared and over a 10 year period, inflation devalued public sector debt by some 63% before needing to repay. We predicted inflation was the only way over a year ago to cover covid-19 debt.
Today
Think ‘Green’ and green energy, think government infrastructure projects such as the high speed rail network, these will all present opportunities. Even Spaceports. With Richard Branson ‘shooting for the stars’ this week, did you even know about the UK building 7 spaceports mainly in Scotland but also in Wales and Cornwall? Did you know that Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic has already signed a partnership agreement with Newquay Airport? Virgin Galactic’s first UK spaceflight departure is due from Newquay Airport in 2022.
