The world will avoid a global recession in 2020. Central Banks have already taken action to avoid slowdown but we do expect some in 2021.
The earnings outlook is improving but U.S. election risk remains high. Risky assets benefited from central bank intervention in 2019 but now growth will need to drive returns. We expect moderately better economic and earnings growth and therefore some stock market growth.
US markets to have a stable 2020 and lock in/consolidate 2019 gains with economic growth rather than Central Bank stimulus. Europe to be flat as Germany is on the brink of recession as is UK. Post Brexit trade negotiations will also drag FTSE up and down. Far East to grow – China to slow but still with a forecast for 6% economic growth
But geo-political risk is still there with Iran, Korea, Brexit, Trade Deals – WE SUGGEST CAUTION - DO NOT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC