The Bank of England base rate is expected to remain static until the end of the year, as employment level statistics cause confusion in the financial sector. The latest monthly release from the Office of National Statistics has shown the claimant figures jumping for the fourth consecutive month, while the preferred Labour Organisation measure of unemployment fell 15,000 in the first quarter of this year alongside the Labour Force Survey employment figures, which are continuing to increase.
It is believed that as money markets have remained about the same over the last month, and employment figures have increased, the Monetary Policy Committee would not want to change its policy stance in the immediate future.
Our view
Static or possibly a 0.25% decrease by the end of the year we think.