Market Forecasts All Down For Summer

Market Forecasts All Down For Summer.

We keep seeing repeated headlines that markets are set for a huge fall later this year.  As you know, we have already ‘cash parked’ 95% of our pensions and investments with only some money in China as we bought in low and continue to invest regularly each month in low unit prices.  We can afford to wait to benefit from an upswing, which may take a couple of years.

This week we have seen headlines like:

• “RBS private bank profits falls 40%”.
• “Barclays profits down”.
• "BHS closes".

Even billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn has sold his entire stake $2bn stake in Apple Inc, as Apples profits fell, suggesting that Apple’s exposure to the Chinese market both on sale of iPhones/iPads as well as manufacturing the same is a huge factor in Apple’s future.

How we decide when to go red or green?

As you may know, we look at the wider range of market opinions as well as our own call on markets with the simple methodology of ‘buy low sell high’. 

There are also a huge range of forecasting models online, for example:

See http://www.forecasts.org/ftse100.htm

The forecast modeller covers all markets and normally it is only around only 100-150 points out on UK and 200-300 out on Dow Jones.  So, it is yet another benchmark indicator to suggest that markets may take a tumble later this year. 

Add to this, Brexit vote uncertainty is adding to market volatility.  This week the “leave” campaign has pushed ahead in the latest “YouGov” poll.