In a letter two days ago from the Bank of England to The Treasury Committee (TSC) at the House of Commons, Mark Carney, Governor states that “improvements in preparedness [for No Deal Brexit] mean that the appropriate set of assumptions to underpin a worst case scenario would now be less severe than those used in the disorderly scenario published on November.”
In November 2018, the Bank suggested a ‘worst case’ scenario would result in:
Carney suggests that since November, the UK has improved its preparedness for a No Deal No Transition Brexit:
As such the Bank has revised down its gloomy predictions as follows:
Comment
There will be a slowdown and this in part will be caused by Brexit but the greater impact will come from global trade war and recession which would have hit the UK irrespective of being inside or outside the EU.
You can read the full letter here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/letter/2019/governor-letter-to-chair-of-tsc-re-updated-brexit-scenarios.pdf