The Office for National Statistics (ONS) today published its monthly labour market overview with figures up to September 2022. The main figures to look out for were:
In contrast, for the last 3 months:
There is an expectation that unemployment is now going to increase as interest rate increases, energy price increases and wage demand increases start to ‘bite’ putting more pressure on employers to cut costs i.e., lose staff and the self employed to ‘shut up shop’.
Room for Manoeuvre for Bank of England?
Whilst employment is high, the numbers of economically inactive people, redundancies, lower hours worked combined with higher food, energy and interest payment costs will mean less money in our pockets and inflation may then fall back in November and December from the anticipated records highs (ONS figures out tomorrow).
This may mean the Bank of England can ease off on further interest rate rises if inflation starts to fall and the economy moves into recession as forecast or as we expect, slow down rates increases to just 0.25%pa steps.