Inflation Up Again

Inflation Increases to 3.1 Per Cent.

The Office for National Statistics has today released inflation figures for November 2017, with the headline CPI inflation staying increasing from 3% pa  to 3.1% pa despite interest rate rises last month.

There was no fan fare of headlines that the old measure of inflation, RPI, went up again to 4% pa.

Inflation + Housing Costs CPIH

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs 12-month inflation rate held again at 2.8% pa for the third consecutive month.  This is known as CPIH and a benchmark we believe that now includes owner occupier housing costs as mortgage interest rates are low.  This is not CPI but CPIH.

Consumer Prices Inflation CPI

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased from 3.0% pa to 3.1% pa.  This is a key Bank of England (BoE) number and we expect possible interest rate rises in January if CPI holds at 3.1% pa in December or rises further.

Retails Prices Index (RPI) – the old measure of inflation

RPI returned to 3.9% pa in November 2017 to 4.0% pa.  Although this is no longer an official 'National Statistic', it certainly keeps the pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates again and strengthen the £.

Comment

The Office for National Statistics suggests that the increase was fuelled by air fares falling between October and November but by less than a year ago and falling prices for travel goods and financial services but rising prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services, most notably computer games, also had an upward effect.  We suggest it was also the increase in oil prices in November that had a major impact and will impact even more with the 'winter freeze' we are currently experiencing.   We have fears of higher inflation in December and therefore further interest rate increases in the New Year.