Chancellor Rachel Reeves Labour Conference Speech is Manifesto Repeat

Over the last few days, when interviewed, both the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor, Rachel Reeves have reinforced their manifesto promise, tried to make a distinction between themselves and the Conservatives and warned of Nigel Farage and Reform in Starmer's Guardian article: "History will not forgive us if we do not use every ounce of our energy to fight Reform. There is an enemy. There is a project which is detrimental to our country. It actually goes against the grain of our history. It's right there in plain sight in front of us. We have to win this battle."   This is a fight for the souls of the working classes in the UK.

Onto the Labour Party Conference, Starmer has tried to deflect speculation by suggestion that the Election Manifesto promises will be stuck to and today, in her speech, Reeves suggests the same.  In short, they are giving nothing away.

Summary of Chancellor’s Speech Today

She suggested she will not take risks with the UK economy and that there are “harder” choices to come.  Our Interpretation:  Beware All (apart from ‘working people’!

Decisions for the future have been made "all the harder" by "harsh global headwinds and long-term damage to the economy" as there will be "further tests" to come.  Our Interpretation:  Beware All (apart from ‘working people’!

Talked about UK National Debt and suggests that 10% of Government revenue on interest payments is “nothing progressive”.  Our Interpretation:  She will stick to her fiscal rules of not borrowing more to pay for increased spending meaning more taxes to come.  Beware All (apart from ‘working people’!

Comment

There is no point speculating anymore.  Labour will try and ‘stick’ to their manifesto promises.  Meaning: No increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT for working people. 

With increased spending and trying to limit borrowing this does mean, that other ‘non-workers’ will have to foot the bill.  Whilst, we cannot second guess, we make the following points:

Everyone Beware!

• No increases to personal tax allowance or other tax allowances?
• Working people does not mean benefit claimants and we have already seen today that young people that refuse to work when offered a ‘guaranteed’ work contract may lose benefits under a new “Youth Guarantee”.

Pensioners Beware!

• National insurance contributions for pensioners?  We think not.
• Removal of the triple lock on state pensions?  Possibly.

Homeowners Beware!

• A new sales tax?
• A new wealth tax on all properties above a certain value?
• Stamp duty rates increase?

Landlords Beware!

• National insurance contributions on rental income profits.
• Capital gains tax allowance reductions and capital tax rate increases?
• Stamp duty rates increase?
• Annual tax on rental property market values?

Business Owners and Shareholders Beware!

• National insurance contributions on dividend income?
• Reduction or removal of tax-free dividend allowance?
• Capital gains tax allowance reductions and capital tax rate increases?
• Corporation tax increases?
• Even more employer’s national insurance contributions?  We think not on this one.
• Withdrawal of the Employment Allowance for employers’ national insurance on smaller firms?
• Withdrawal of Small Business Rates Relief?

Savers and Investors Beware!

• Cash ISA annual allowance reduction?
• Cash and Stock ISA Lifetime Savings Limit?
• Capital gains tax allowance reductions and capital tax rate increases?
• Tax Free Savings Allowances reduction or abolition?
• Increased taxation for trusts?
• Pension Annual Allowance reduction?
• Withdrawal of tax-free growth on Pension Funds?  We think not.
• Vintage car investment subject to capital gains tax?

Beware of Death! (apart from stating the obvious)

• Inheritance tax allowances for individual wealth and business assets reductions or frozen?

We could go on, but anything that is not ‘working peoples’ income’ may be under attack.  Beware!

No more speculation, tax rises are coming for some or many types of income and wealth that do not involve working and getting ‘earned’ income.  Tighten those belts.