Can Government Afford Tax Cuts With No Deal Brexit

Published / Last Updated on 31/07/2019

If there is a No Deal Brexit can the Government afford tax cuts and spending that it has proposed?  20,000 new police officers, billions for the NHS, £80,000 higher rate tax threshold, 15% corporation tax?

The simply answer is no.  No government, that is already in debt and went a further £25bn overdrawn last year can afford to spend, spend, spend and cut its tax revenue.

The simply answer is to borrow what it needs.  This seems to be the answer for the USA and Europe so why would the UK be any different?

The UK has been gradually reducing its debt position over the last 8 years or so has built, not quite a Brexit War Chest, but a Brexit borrowing cushion.

At the moment borrowing is Government is extremely cheap.  Government loan notes are known as Gilts (Gilt Edged Securities).  The Government last sold £2.75 billion of 10-year gilts at a yield of just 0.789%.  In short, it borrowed £2.75 billion and is paying just 0.789% fixed interest for 10 years.

With the US reducing interests rates for the first time in 10 years yesterday, UK gilt yields could go even lower. 

If there is a No Deal Brexit it may force the need for higher borrowing by scaring away some foreign investors and eventuallu drive borrowing costs up by downgrading UK by credit-rating agencies.  Will Boris borrow when it is cheaper?

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