US Inflation Holds at 2.7% as Oil Prices Rise and Federal Reserve Tension Builds
Published / Last Updated on 13/01/2026
It’s all getting a little tricky out there for central bankers. The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 3 times since September and is due to meet again on 28th January 2026. Yet more interesting times to come as:
US Inflation Holds at 2.7% pa
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has today released the latest consumer prices inflation for at 2.7%. This was broadly made up of food prices rising but energy prices falling.
Venezuela and Iran Oil Prices
Global tension for Venezuelan oil and huge public protects in Iran, have pushed oil prices up. Oil prices are already up 3% today and 7.59% in the last week. President Trump posted online a message to the Iranian people ““HELP IS ON ITS WAY” and urged them to 'keep protesting'. Given, it is reported 2,000 protestors have been killed, we understand the President’s desire to try and protect people but also, politically to force change in Iran. Any military intervention by the US in Iran will push oil prices up further.
Federal Reserve Chief Investigation
The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell is now under criminal investigation in the US for statements about funding for repairs of the Federal Reserve building. Whatever is going on over there, we know that President Trump has applied pressure to try and get interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and at times, Powell has held firm alongside fellow Federal Open Market Committee members when voting on rate cuts or not. Indeed, 13 central bank governors around the world have all signed a statement in support of Powell and the need for central bank independence i.e., making independent decisions for the good of the economy rather allowing any political motivations to creep in.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Announcement
The 28th January 2026 is the next key date for interest rate decisions in the US and with tensions all around, this could be a fiery month given tension between Powell and Trump.
Comment
- Oil prices may potentially push energy costs up in addition to already increasing food prices and therefore interest rates may be held or even be increased.
- Trade sanction tariffs on any country trading with Iran will add to pressure on inflation globally.
- Military intervention in the Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia and now Iran may de-stabilise markets even further. If you then add this to tensions for Greenland, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza/Iran and China/Taiwan, it all adds up to one crazy January.
Gold prices up and some major ‘blue chip’ stock markets may climb too. Interest rates to hold?