Property Sales Turn Positive in 2026 as Rates Fall

Sales agreed are now 1% higher than last year, despite buyer demand being 10% lower, marking the first positive sales-agreed figure of 2026. This resilience mirrors previous periods of uncertainty (post‑2022 mini‑Budget and pre‑Autumn Budget 2025), where sales held firm even as enquiries dipped.

First‑Time Buyers: Spending More, Not Compromising

• Average FTB target price: £254,750 — 4.3% higher than last year, nearly 3× the pace of UK-wide house price inflation (1.5%).
• London FTBs: Now targeting £502,250, up £15,000 YoY, despite overall London prices being flat.
• Regional FTB price rises:
  • Scotland: +7.9%
  • West Midlands: +7%
  • South West: +1.9%
• Enquiries down 6%, but active buyers are not compromising on property type.
  • Outside London: 53% of FTB enquiries still for 3‑bed houses.
  • London: Majority still focused on flats.
• Affordability testing changes (stress rate down from 8.5% to 6.5%) have widened access and supported price growth.

Supply Side: More Sellers Returning

• New listings are up 3.4% YoY, adding choice and helping stabilise prices.
• Northern England, Scotland and Wales seeing 2%–3.6% price growth, supported by improved affordability and scarcity of stock.
• London:
  • Sales agreed +8% YoY
  • Homes for sale +13% YoY
  • Prices now flat YoY after six months of falls.

Mortgage Market: Lenders Cut Rates Across FTB, High‑LTV & BTL

Fierce competition is returning, with notable reductions from Barclays, Shawbrook and TML.

Barclays Rate Cuts

• 2‑year fix (60% LTV): from 4.39% (£899 fee) or 4.64% fee‑free.
• 3‑year fix (90% LTV): 5.25%.
• 3‑year fix (95% LTV): cut from 5.85% → 5.42%.
• 5‑year fixes (85–95% LTV): reductions up to 0.19%.
• Green Home products also reduced by up to 0.19%.

Shawbrook & TML (Buy‑to‑Let)

• TML new limited‑edition 5‑year fix: from 4.74%, with 2% or 5% fee options + free valuation.
• TML rate reductions: up to 15bps across selected 2‑ and 5‑year products.
• HMO 5‑year fixes: from 5.06%.
• Shawbrook: reductions up to 0.25% across selected BTL products.

Why Sales Are Rising Despite Lower Demand

Zoopla highlights a shift in market composition:

• Casual browsers and rate‑sensitive buyers have stepped back.
• Committed movers—those needing to transact—are driving sales.
• Lower mortgage rates are improving affordability and confidence.
• More stock is supporting activity and keeping price growth modest.

UK House Price Inflation

• Current UK house price inflation: 1.5%.
• Strongest regions:
  • North West: +3.3%
  • Scotland: +2.8%
  • North East: +2.5%
• London: 0% YoY (flat).

Our View

We are in the peak months for offers and sales, with committed movers pressing ahead as rates drift lower.  Local market trends and knowledge rather than national sentiment are key drivers.

Key Takeaways

• Rates are falling, especially at high LTVs and BTL, improving affordability.
• FTBs are driving price resilience, spending more and refusing to compromise.
• Sales are up despite fewer buyers, showing a market led by serious movers.
• More stock is helping stabilise prices and improve choice.
• Regional divergence remains strong: North & Scotland outperform; London flat.