Investment Alerts

Published / Last Updated on 04/04/2020

Your Traffic Light Investment Alerts are here:

Red, Amber and Green Investment Warnings Service

Unique 'Traffic Light’ investment warnings on the Directors personal views of markets.

  • Market Rises - get in before markets rise
  • Falls - lock in profits and get out before markets fall.

We will not get it right all of the time, if we did then we would be billionaires.  We look at markets at crucial trigger points, assess the likelihood of rises or falls and give you our sentiment for that market.

Traffic Light Investment Sentiment Alert: Green, fully invested and drip feeding

04/04/2020 – Yet another yo-yo week, markets bouncing up and down on mass unemployment, businesses on the brink of failure, pressure on banks and insurers to cut or cancel dividends and government stimulus to counter.  The largest fall of all this week was in Japan as pressure mounts for Japan to finally move into lockdown, much like the rest of the World.  That said, western markets appear to be coping relatively well with lower falls but we still have commentators who predict the market could fall another 20 to 30% and others predicting a yo-yo but stable market as markets and investors have now priced in the lock down.  Who knows? 

We repeat the message of last the few weeks, the spread of the virus will get much worse before it gets better.  Governments have taken action to slow down the spread and we hope all will comply.  We went Green two weeks ago for equities, having invested into what we believe were reasonable 'developed market' prices, having already been fully invested into China and Hong Kong (after drip feeding into China across the 2,700 to 2,900 mark, Hong Kong at 24,000 to 26,000 mark) and on 23rd March we invested fully in UK FTSE at 4,993, German DAX at 8,741, French CAC at 3,914, Japanese Nikkei at 16,887 and US DOW at 18,591 and we will now remain invested for the medium term and ‘ride it out’.  We benefitted from the spike last week, but we fell back again this week – we are comfortable to hold for the medium and long term.

If you are cash parked or have considerable funds held in cash for ‘opportunity’ investing you may choose to invest soon or hold and wait.  Nobody can call the market or indeed the risk of virus spread and market falls, so either way we are all gambling.  We have made our decision to invest now as most markets fell well below their year lows but you must make your own decision, we cannot make this for you.

If you are already invested and have suffered losses, know that markets will likely recover as soon as a vaccine is delivered.  Quantitative easing could also push markets higher, so you may choose to ride it out.  Remember, you have only physically made a loss if you actually cash in or switch out of markets into safe havens.

BE SAFE ALL.

Market Year Highs and Lows:

  Year Low % Return v Year Low Close at 03/04/2020 Year High % Return v Year High  
FTSE 100 4898 10.56% 5415 7727 -29.92% FTSE 100
Dow Jones 18917 11.29% 21052 29568 -28.80% Dow Jones
Dax 8258 15.34% 9525 13792 -30.94% Dax
CAC 3652 13.75% 4154 6115 -32.07% CAC
China 2646 4.42% 2763 3288 -15.97% China
Hong Kong 21139 9.92% 23236 30280 -23.26% Hong Kong
Japan 16358 8.94% 17820 24115 -26.10% Japan
  Average 10.60%   Average -26.72%  

Stock Market Indices This Week:

  Last week close This week close % Return  
FTSE 100 5510 5415 -1.72% down
Dow Jones 21636 21052 -2.70% down
Dax 9632 9525 -1.11% down
CAC 4351 4154 -4.53% down
China 2772 2763 -0.32% down
Hong Kong 23484 23236 -1.06% down
Japan 19389 17820 -8.09% down
Average across indices this week -2.79%  

What's the difference - Red/Amber/Green v Positive/Neutral/Negative?

  • Red/Amber/Green - is what we are doing right now with our own investments - THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU.  Red - we are in cash, Amber - we are holding our position, Green - we are invested.
  • Positive/Neutral/Negative Sentiment - is a our view of a particular investment sector for the coming months.  Positive - we think market will grow, Neutral - we think market will remain flat or are not sure, Negative - we think market will fall.
  • Video/Watch - Why do traffic light alerts now include sentiment indicators?  We explain ...

Our Market Sentiment View Overall: Amber/Neutral

  • UK - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Europe - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • North America - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Japan - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Far East/Asia (excl. Japan) - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Emerging Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China et al) - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Index Linked (Gilts/Bonds) - 'GREEN' and Neutral.
  • Fixed Interest Gilts/Bonds/Corporate Bonds) - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Commercial Property - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Money Markets/Cash - 'RED' and Neutral.

Sentiment List: What do larger fund managers think?  https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Adviser/investment-and-funds/fund-information/portfolio-building/Sentiment-indicator/

THE CONTENTS OF THIS ALERT IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU PERSONALLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE. JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE GONE GREEN WITH OUR OWN MONEY AND DECIDED TO INVEST, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU SHOULD INVEST OR DISINVEST. OUR ASSET MIX, OUR RISK PROFILE AND OUR TOLERANCE TO LOSSES MAY BE VERY DIFFERENT TO YOUR OWN.

We repeat if you are not in markets, worried about having too much in cash and you want to go back into markets or start ‘drip feeding’ back in now that markets have fallen even further or if you are invested in markets and want to get out then please contact us with your instructions.

What Should I Do?  If you wish to switch funds:

  • For Gold clients who do not want mid-term advice, we will action your specific switch instructions at no charge.
  • For Gold clients who want mid-term advice on which funds to switch to/from, there is a charge (£200 per policy).
  • For Platinum clients we will review your funds and suggest switches at no additional charge.

CHECK YOUR LAST REVIEW REPORT:  To see what funds we recommended to you so that you know what you are in or what you decided to postpone investing in.

Want advice? Platinum Clients No Charge.  Other Clients, mid-term advice £200 per policy.

DIY: Log in to your investments/telephone the provider direct to instruct any fund switches.

Email us:  Check your last report and send us an email with your instruction.

All Too Complex but do not want to pay for “mid-term” advice from us, consider emailing the following text:

“Dear Ashley/Joanne

I instruct you to switch X%/£XX in the "YYYY" fund to the following “XXXX” fund(s) in line with my last fund review report.”

WARNING:  NO ADVICE GIVEN OR DEEMED TO BE GIVEN:  WE CANNOT ADVISE WHEN A GOOD TIME TO INVEST OR NOT IS – INVESTMENT ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY ON OUR OWN PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE MARKETS.  Please do not ask us for advice on what to do – if we knew exactly what will happen with markets, we would be billionaires.  This alert service is purely for information to let you know when we personally invest our own money in/out of markets.

Is a Traffic Light Investment Alert Financial Advice?

TRAFFIC LIGHT INVESTMENT ALERTS EXPLAINED:  THIS IS NOT FORMAL FINANCIAL ADVICE.  ALERTS ARE NOT TAILORED TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WE ARE NOT PERSONALLY ADVISING YOU TO SWITCH OR NOT.

TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERTS ARE TO GIVE YOU OUR SENTIMENT ONLY OF A MARKET SECTOR USING STOCK INDICES AS THE BENCHMARK.

IN SHORT, THEY ARE CLIENT WIDE WARNINGS FOR YOU TO CONSIDER YOURSELF WHETHER TO SWITCH FROM CASH TO MARKETS OR MARKETS TO CASH – WE WILL NOT OFFER FORMAL ADVICE ON CHOOSING FUNDS – WE WILL ONLY TAKE YOUR INSTRUCTION TO SWITCH IN OR OUT OF MARKETS.

Explore our Site

About
Advice
Money MOT
T and C