Your Traffic Light Investment Alerts are here:
Red, Amber and Green Investment Warnings Service
Unique 'Traffic Light’ investment warnings on the Directors personal views of markets.
We will not get it right all of the time, if we did then we would be billionaires. We look at markets at crucial trigger points, assess the likelihood of rises or falls and give you our sentiment for that market.
08/11/2019 – In China, her exports slowdown is levelling out as a US/China trade deal looks likely although Donald Trump suggests that he will not be ‘fast tracking’ any withdrawal of existing tariffs. In Europe, Germany and France hit year highs as exports again kept both Germany and France out of recession. That said, we have still record outflows from equities to cash and fixed interest/bond stocks in the last quarter according to the Investment Association. Both equities and bonds, with the exception of UK FTSE 100, China and Hong Kong are at year highs. We expect some further growth in equity markets but the reality is that when markets hit highs they then likely fall back. The same can be said for bonds although with interest rates being held or cut, bonds demand increases. For the next few months, we see bonds holding their position but watch out for rate rises that will drive bonds down. For equities, watch out for recession preventative action which will underpin current market rises but we believe the next 6 months will likely deliver negative returns. We continue to drip feed in the Far East as markets are still way below year highs but Europe and North American markets have again hit year highs this week which is why we still remain cautious for markets in the West. Like last week, we continue to drip feed into Japan despite the Nikkei also hitting another year high. We have now made around 13% on Japan since we went green there on 09/08/2019 so we are moving to amber and holding what we have but may turn the drip feed off very soon. We repeat our message of last week, Japan has close links on trade with the US, we also believe there is a little more mileage in this market given trade connections with China, Hong Kong and South Korea, which may get an extra boost when any US/China trade deal is agreed.
|Year Low||% Return v Year Low||Close at 08/11/2019||Year High||% Return v Year High|
|FTSE 100||6536||12.59%||7359||7727||-4.76%||FTSE 100|
|Dow Jones||21712||27.49%||27681||27774||-0.33%||Dow Jones|
|Hong Kong||24896||11.07%||27651||30280||-8.68%||Hong Kong|
|Last week close||This week close||% Return|
|Average across indices this week||1.52%|
What's the difference - Red/Amber/Green v Positive/Neutral/Negative?
Sentiment List: What do larger fund managers think? https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Adviser/investment-and-funds/fund-information/portfolio-building/Sentiment-indicator/
THE CONTENTS OF THIS ALERT IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU PERSONALLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE. JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE GONE GREEN WITH OUR OWN MONEY AND DECIDED TO INVEST, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU SHOULD INVEST OR DISINVEST. OUR ASSET MIX, OUR RISK PROFILE AND OUR TOLERANCE TO LOSSES MAY BE VERY DIFFERENT TO YOUR OWN.
We repeat if you are not in markets, worried about having too much in cash and you want to go back into markets or start ‘drip feeding’ back in now that markets have fallen even further or if you are invested in markets and want to get out then please contact us with your instructions.
What Should I Do? If you wish to switch funds:
CHECK YOUR LAST REVIEW REPORT: To see what funds we recommended to you so that you know what you are in or what you decided to postpone investing in.
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All Too Complex but do not want to pay for “mid-term” advice from us, consider emailing the following text:
I instruct you to switch X%/£XX in the "YYYY" fund to the following “XXXX” fund(s) in line with my last fund review report.”
WARNING: NO ADVICE GIVEN OR DEEMED TO BE GIVEN: WE CANNOT ADVISE WHEN A GOOD TIME TO INVEST OR NOT IS – INVESTMENT ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY ON OUR OWN PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE MARKETS. Please do not ask us for advice on what to do – if we knew exactly what will happen with markets, we would be billionaires. This alert service is purely for information to let you know when we personally invest our own money in/out of markets.
Is a Traffic Light Investment Alert Financial Advice?
TRAFFIC LIGHT INVESTMENT ALERTS EXPLAINED: THIS IS NOT FORMAL FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALERTS ARE NOT TAILORED TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WE ARE NOT PERSONALLY ADVISING YOU TO SWITCH OR NOT.
TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERTS ARE TO GIVE YOU OUR SENTIMENT ONLY OF A MARKET SECTOR USING STOCK INDICES AS THE BENCHMARK.
IN SHORT, THEY ARE CLIENT WIDE WARNINGS FOR YOU TO CONSIDER YOURSELF WHETHER TO SWITCH FROM CASH TO MARKETS OR MARKETS TO CASH – WE WILL NOT OFFER FORMAL ADVICE ON CHOOSING FUNDS – WE WILL ONLY TAKE YOUR INSTRUCTION TO SWITCH IN OR OUT OF MARKETS.