Investment Alerts

Published / Last Updated on 20/07/2019

Your Traffic Light Investment Alerts are here:

Red, Amber and Green Investment Warnings Service

Unique 'Traffic Light’ investment warnings on the Directors personal views of markets.

  • Market Rises - get in before markets rise
  • Falls - lock in profits and get out before markets fall.

We will not get it right all of the time, if we did then we would be billionaires.  We look at markets at crucial trigger points, assess the likelihood of rises or falls and give you our sentiment for that market.

Traffic Light Investment Sentiment Alert: Amber but some Red/Neutral

20/07/19 – Markets ‘took a breather’ this week with not much movement.  Investors are waiting for signs of slowdown and economic stimulus from central banks with interest rate cuts or indeed increases if inflation creeps back up.  Inflation fell back slightly indicating an easing of tension and then Iran allegedly captured a UK tanker and oil prices jumped more than 2% last night as Donald Trump confirmed that US Forces had destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz.  We expect more tension next week, oil prices up and gold pushing up even higher as investors look for safe haven investment.  Add Trade War tension, digital tax plans in UK and Europe on global (mainly US) tech firms, our position from last week remains unchanged and we repeat the message of the last two week’s:  We continue to drip feed having made and then banked gains since December 2018 (indices that we track are still 11% higher than then).  We are becoming more defensive, particularly for US markets as markets hits a year high last week and we are ‘RED’ for US funds and some European funds that have significant exposure to France/Germany.  That said, there may still be potential for more growth although we personally prefer to lock down those gains.  We remain mostly Amber i.e. just holding for now but maintain our stance of buy low, sell high (where we are Red) and continue to drip feed in particular to the Far East as prices are lower.


Stock Market Indices

  • FTSE 100 (UK) - last week 7,505, closing this week at 7,508 (+0.04%)
  • Dow Jones (USA) - last week 27,332, closing this week at 27,154 (-0.65%)
  • Dax (Germany) - last week 12,323, closing this week at 12,260 (-0.51%)
  • CAC (France) - last week 5,572, closing this week at 5,552 (-0.36%)
  • Shanghai Comp. (China) - last week 2,930, closing this week at 2,924 (-0.20%)
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) - last week 28,471, closing this week at 28,765 (+1.03%)
  • Nikkei (Japan) - last week 21,685, closing this week at 21,467 (-1.01%)

An average across the above indices of -0.24% this week.


What's the difference - Red/Amber/Green v Positive/Neutral/Negative?

  • Red/Amber/Green - is what we are doing right now with our own investments - THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU.  Red - we are in cash, Amber - we are holding our position, Green - we are invested.
  • Positive/Neutral/Negative Sentiment - is a our view of a particular investment sector for the coming months.  Positive - we think market will grow, Neutral - we think market will remain flat or are not sure, Negative - we think market will fall.
  • Video/Watch - Why do traffic light alerts now include sentiment indicators?  We explain ...

Our Market Sentiment View Overall: Amber/Neutral

  • UK – ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Europe - ‘RED’ but Neutral.
  • North America - ‘RED’ but Neutral.
  • Japan - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Far East/Asia (excl. Japan) - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Emerging Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China et al) - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Index Linked (Gilts/Bonds) - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Fixed Interest Gilts/Bonds/Corporate Bonds) - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Commercial Property - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Money Markets/Cash - 'AMBER' and Neutral.

Sentiment List: What do larger fund managers think?  https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Adviser/investment-and-funds/fund-information/portfolio-building/Sentiment-indicator/

THE CONTENTS OF THIS ALERT IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU PERSONALLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE. JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE GONE GREEN WITH OUR OWN MONEY AND DECIDED TO INVEST, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU SHOULD INVEST OR DISINVEST. OUR ASSET MIX, OUR RISK PROFILE AND OUR TOLERANCE TO LOSSES MAY BE VERY DIFFERENT TO YOUR OWN.

We repeat if you are not in markets, worried about having too much in cash and you want to go back into markets or start ‘drip feeding’ back in now that markets have fallen even further or if you are invested in markets and want to get out then please contact us with your instructions.


What Should I Do?  If you wish to switch funds:

  • For Gold clients who do not want mid-term advice, we will action your specific switch instructions at no charge.
  • For Gold clients who want mid-term advice on which funds to switch to/from, there is a charge (£200 per policy).
  • For Platinum clients we will review your funds and suggest switches at no additional charge.

CHECK YOUR LAST REVIEW REPORT:  To see what funds we recommended to you so that you know what you are in or what you decided to postpone investing in.

Want advice? Platinum Clients No Charge.  Other Clients, mid-term advice £200 per policy.

DIY: Log in to your investments/telephone the provider direct to instruct any fund switches.

Email us:  Check your last report and send us an email with your instruction.

All Too Complex but do not want to pay for “mid-term” advice from us, consider emailing the following text:

“Dear Ashley/Joanne

I instruct you to switch X%/£XX in the "YYYY" fund to the following “XXXX” fund(s) in line with my last fund review report.”

WARNING:  NO ADVICE GIVEN OR DEEMED TO BE GIVEN:  WE CANNOT ADVISE WHEN A GOOD TIME TO INVEST OR NOT IS – INVESTMENT ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY ON OUR OWN PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE MARKETS.  Please do not ask us for advice on what to do – if we knew exactly what will happen with markets, we would be billionaires.  This alert service is purely for information to let you know when we personally invest our own money in/out of markets.

Is a Traffic Light Investment Alert Financial Advice?

TRAFFIC LIGHT INVESTMENT ALERTS EXPLAINED:  THIS IS NOT FORMAL FINANCIAL ADVICE.  ALERTS ARE NOT TAILORED TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WE ARE NOT PERSONALLY ADVISING YOU TO SWITCH OR NOT.

TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERTS ARE TO GIVE YOU OUR SENTIMENT ONLY OF A MARKET SECTOR USING STOCK INDICES AS THE BENCHMARK.

IN SHORT, THEY ARE CLIENT WIDE WARNINGS FOR YOU TO CONSIDER YOURSELF WHETHER TO SWITCH FROM CASH TO MARKETS OR MARKETS TO CASH – WE WILL NOT OFFER FORMAL ADVICE ON CHOOSING FUNDS – WE WILL ONLY TAKE YOUR INSTRUCTION TO SWITCH IN OR OUT OF MARKETS.

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