Investment Alerts

Published / Last Updated on 18/01/2020

Your Traffic Light Investment Alerts are here:

Red, Amber and Green Investment Warnings Service

Unique 'Traffic Light’ investment warnings on the Directors personal views of markets.

  • Market Rises - get in before markets rise
  • Falls - lock in profits and get out before markets fall.

We will not get it right all of the time, if we did then we would be billionaires.  We look at markets at crucial trigger points, assess the likelihood of rises or falls and give you our sentiment for that market.

Traffic Light Investment Sentiment Alert: Amber Overall but some Red, Neutral and Green

18/01/2020 – Markets continued to hit new highs or push up towards new highs.  Why is this?  Economic miracle or false economy?  We suggest this is a false economy.  It is widely predicted that a global economic slow down is coming yet central banks have intervened to try and prevent recession.  The key drivers are the US/China trade deal initially agreed, yet tariffs remain in place for now and central bank intervention.  China growth is still there but slowing down.  FTSE 100 closed up on a weaker pound as pressure mounts on the Bank of England to cut interest rates (remember a weak pound means bigger profits in sterling terms for big FTSE 100 companies that earn say in dollars and convert dollar profits to even bigger sterling profits with the weak pound).  In addition, precious metals mining stocks also jumped, you need to watch our video on Repos this week to understand why this might be the case.

In the US, the Repo market (indirect government cash injection stimulus – watch the repo video) continued to bubble away, driving US stocks upwards as well as the tentative trade deal with China.  This trade deal also pushed confidence up in Europe and the Far East.  That said, we have said it before and we say it again, DO NOT GET OVERCONFIDENT.  It is direct and indirect central bank stimulus that is driving markets.  This is a bubble waiting to burst and why many investors are now starting to lock down profits and move to safe havens such as gold.  We continue to be fully invested in equity/stock markets for now and our position of the last few weeks remains unchanged as we continue to drip feed new money (regular savings) every month into equity markets for the time being but keeping a keen eye on the fact that many markets are at all time highs.  There will likely be more growth to come but there will be a time in 2020 when we will finally go negative.

Market Year Highs and Lows:

  Year Low % Return v Year Low Close at 17/01/2020 Year High % Return v Year High  
FTSE 100 6536 17.41% 7674 7727 -0.69% FTSE 100
Dow Jones 22638 29.64% 29348 29348 0.00% Dow Jones
Dax 10279 31.59% 13526 13526 0.00% Dax
CAC 4606 32.44% 6100 6100 0.00% CAC
China 2440 26.02% 3075 3288 -6.48% China
Hong Kong 24896 16.71% 29056 30280 -4.04% Hong Kong
Japan 19241 24.95% 24041 24091 -0.21% Japan
  Average 25.54%   Average -1.63%  

Stock Market Indices This Week:

  Last week close This week close % Return  
FTSE 100 7587 7674 1.15% up
Dow Jones 28823 29348 1.82% up
Dax 13483 13526 0.32% up
CAC 6037 6100 1.04% up
China 3092 3075 -0.55% down
Hong Kong 28638 29056 1.46% up
Japan 23850 24041 0.80% up
Average across indices this week 0.86%  

What's the difference - Red/Amber/Green v Positive/Neutral/Negative?

  • Red/Amber/Green - is what we are doing right now with our own investments - THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU.  Red - we are in cash, Amber - we are holding our position, Green - we are invested.
  • Positive/Neutral/Negative Sentiment - is a our view of a particular investment sector for the coming months.  Positive - we think market will grow, Neutral - we think market will remain flat or are not sure, Negative - we think market will fall.
  • Video/Watch - Why do traffic light alerts now include sentiment indicators?  We explain ...

Our Market Sentiment View Overall: Amber/Neutral

  • UK - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Europe - ‘RED’ but Neutral.
  • North America - ‘RED’ but Neutral.
  • Japan - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Far East/Asia (excl. Japan) - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Emerging Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China et al) - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Index Linked (Gilts/Bonds) - 'RED' but Neutral.
  • Fixed Interest Gilts/Bonds/Corporate Bonds) - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Commercial Property - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Money Markets/Cash - 'AMBER' and Neutral.

Sentiment List: What do larger fund managers think?  https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Adviser/investment-and-funds/fund-information/portfolio-building/Sentiment-indicator/

THE CONTENTS OF THIS ALERT IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU PERSONALLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE. JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE GONE GREEN WITH OUR OWN MONEY AND DECIDED TO INVEST, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU SHOULD INVEST OR DISINVEST. OUR ASSET MIX, OUR RISK PROFILE AND OUR TOLERANCE TO LOSSES MAY BE VERY DIFFERENT TO YOUR OWN.

We repeat if you are not in markets, worried about having too much in cash and you want to go back into markets or start ‘drip feeding’ back in now that markets have fallen even further or if you are invested in markets and want to get out then please contact us with your instructions.

What Should I Do?  If you wish to switch funds:

  • For Gold clients who do not want mid-term advice, we will action your specific switch instructions at no charge.
  • For Gold clients who want mid-term advice on which funds to switch to/from, there is a charge (£200 per policy).
  • For Platinum clients we will review your funds and suggest switches at no additional charge.

CHECK YOUR LAST REVIEW REPORT:  To see what funds we recommended to you so that you know what you are in or what you decided to postpone investing in.

Want advice? Platinum Clients No Charge.  Other Clients, mid-term advice £200 per policy.

DIY: Log in to your investments/telephone the provider direct to instruct any fund switches.

Email us:  Check your last report and send us an email with your instruction.

All Too Complex but do not want to pay for “mid-term” advice from us, consider emailing the following text:

“Dear Ashley/Joanne

I instruct you to switch X%/£XX in the "YYYY" fund to the following “XXXX” fund(s) in line with my last fund review report.”

WARNING:  NO ADVICE GIVEN OR DEEMED TO BE GIVEN:  WE CANNOT ADVISE WHEN A GOOD TIME TO INVEST OR NOT IS – INVESTMENT ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY ON OUR OWN PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE MARKETS.  Please do not ask us for advice on what to do – if we knew exactly what will happen with markets, we would be billionaires.  This alert service is purely for information to let you know when we personally invest our own money in/out of markets.

Is a Traffic Light Investment Alert Financial Advice?

TRAFFIC LIGHT INVESTMENT ALERTS EXPLAINED:  THIS IS NOT FORMAL FINANCIAL ADVICE.  ALERTS ARE NOT TAILORED TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WE ARE NOT PERSONALLY ADVISING YOU TO SWITCH OR NOT.

TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERTS ARE TO GIVE YOU OUR SENTIMENT ONLY OF A MARKET SECTOR USING STOCK INDICES AS THE BENCHMARK.

IN SHORT, THEY ARE CLIENT WIDE WARNINGS FOR YOU TO CONSIDER YOURSELF WHETHER TO SWITCH FROM CASH TO MARKETS OR MARKETS TO CASH – WE WILL NOT OFFER FORMAL ADVICE ON CHOOSING FUNDS – WE WILL ONLY TAKE YOUR INSTRUCTION TO SWITCH IN OR OUT OF MARKETS.

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