Investment Alerts

Published / Last Updated on 09/11/2019

Your Traffic Light Investment Alerts are here:

Red, Amber and Green Investment Warnings Service

Unique 'Traffic Light’ investment warnings on the Directors personal views of markets.

  • Market Rises - get in before markets rise
  • Falls - lock in profits and get out before markets fall.

We will not get it right all of the time, if we did then we would be billionaires.  We look at markets at crucial trigger points, assess the likelihood of rises or falls and give you our sentiment for that market.

Traffic Light Investment Sentiment Alert: Amber Overall but some Red, Neutral and Green

08/11/2019 – In China, her exports slowdown is levelling out as a US/China trade deal looks likely although Donald Trump suggests that he will not be ‘fast tracking’ any withdrawal of existing tariffs.  In Europe, Germany and France hit year highs as exports again kept both Germany and France out of recession.   That said, we have still record outflows from equities to cash and fixed interest/bond stocks in the last quarter according to the Investment Association.  Both equities and bonds, with the exception of UK FTSE 100, China and Hong Kong are at year highs.  We expect some further growth in equity markets but the reality is that when markets hit highs they then likely fall back.  The same can be said for bonds although with interest rates being held or cut, bonds demand increases.  For the next few months, we see bonds holding their position but watch out for rate rises that will drive bonds down.  For equities, watch out for recession preventative action which will underpin current market rises but we believe the next 6 months will likely deliver negative returns.  We continue to drip feed in the Far East as markets are still way below year highs but Europe and North American markets have again hit year highs this week which is why we still remain cautious for markets in the West.  Like last week, we continue to drip feed into Japan despite the Nikkei also hitting another year high.  We have now made around 13% on Japan since we went green there on 09/08/2019 so we are moving to amber and holding what we have but may turn the drip feed off very soon.  We repeat our message of last week, Japan has close links on trade with the US, we also believe there is a little more mileage in this market given trade connections with China, Hong Kong and South Korea, which may get an extra boost when any US/China trade deal is agreed.

Market Year Highs and Lows:

  Year Low % Return v Year Low Close at 08/11/2019 Year High % Return v Year High  
FTSE 100 6536 12.59% 7359 7727 -4.76% FTSE 100
Dow Jones 21712 27.49% 27681 27774 -0.33% Dow Jones
Dax 10279 28.69% 13228 13296 -0.51% Dax
CAC 4606 27.85% 5889 5894 -0.08% CAC
China 2440 21.48% 2964 3288 -9.85% China
Hong Kong 24896 11.07% 27651 30280 -8.68% Hong Kong
Japan 18948 23.13% 23330 23591 -1.11% Japan
  Average 21.76%   Average -3.62%  

Stock Market Indices This Week

  Last week close This week close % Return  
FTSE 100 7302 7359 0.78% up
Dow Jones 27347 27681 1.22% up
Dax 12961 13228 2.06% up
CAC 5761 5889 2.22% up
China 2958 2964 0.20% up
Hong Kong 27100 27651 2.03% up
Japan 22850 23330 2.10% up
Average across indices this week 1.52%  

What's the difference - Red/Amber/Green v Positive/Neutral/Negative?

  • Red/Amber/Green - is what we are doing right now with our own investments - THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU.  Red - we are in cash, Amber - we are holding our position, Green - we are invested.
  • Positive/Neutral/Negative Sentiment - is a our view of a particular investment sector for the coming months.  Positive - we think market will grow, Neutral - we think market will remain flat or are not sure, Negative - we think market will fall.
  • Video/Watch - Why do traffic light alerts now include sentiment indicators?  We explain ...

Our Market Sentiment View Overall: Amber/Neutral

  • UK - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Europe - ‘RED’ and Neutral.
  • North America - ‘RED’ but Neutral.
  • Japan - ‘AMBER’ and Neutral.
  • Far East/Asia (excl. Japan) - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Emerging Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China et al) - ‘GREEN’ but Neutral.
  • Index Linked (Gilts/Bonds) - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Fixed Interest Gilts/Bonds/Corporate Bonds) - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Commercial Property - 'AMBER' and Neutral.
  • Money Markets/Cash - 'AMBER' and Neutral.

Sentiment List: What do larger fund managers think?  https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Adviser/investment-and-funds/fund-information/portfolio-building/Sentiment-indicator/

THE CONTENTS OF THIS ALERT IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU PERSONALLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE. JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE GONE GREEN WITH OUR OWN MONEY AND DECIDED TO INVEST, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU SHOULD INVEST OR DISINVEST. OUR ASSET MIX, OUR RISK PROFILE AND OUR TOLERANCE TO LOSSES MAY BE VERY DIFFERENT TO YOUR OWN.

We repeat if you are not in markets, worried about having too much in cash and you want to go back into markets or start ‘drip feeding’ back in now that markets have fallen even further or if you are invested in markets and want to get out then please contact us with your instructions.

What Should I Do?  If you wish to switch funds:

  • For Gold clients who do not want mid-term advice, we will action your specific switch instructions at no charge.
  • For Gold clients who want mid-term advice on which funds to switch to/from, there is a charge (£200 per policy).
  • For Platinum clients we will review your funds and suggest switches at no additional charge.

CHECK YOUR LAST REVIEW REPORT:  To see what funds we recommended to you so that you know what you are in or what you decided to postpone investing in.

Want advice? Platinum Clients No Charge.  Other Clients, mid-term advice £200 per policy.

DIY: Log in to your investments/telephone the provider direct to instruct any fund switches.

Email us:  Check your last report and send us an email with your instruction.

All Too Complex but do not want to pay for “mid-term” advice from us, consider emailing the following text:

“Dear Ashley/Joanne

I instruct you to switch X%/£XX in the "YYYY" fund to the following “XXXX” fund(s) in line with my last fund review report.”

WARNING:  NO ADVICE GIVEN OR DEEMED TO BE GIVEN:  WE CANNOT ADVISE WHEN A GOOD TIME TO INVEST OR NOT IS – INVESTMENT ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY ON OUR OWN PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE MARKETS.  Please do not ask us for advice on what to do – if we knew exactly what will happen with markets, we would be billionaires.  This alert service is purely for information to let you know when we personally invest our own money in/out of markets.

Is a Traffic Light Investment Alert Financial Advice?

TRAFFIC LIGHT INVESTMENT ALERTS EXPLAINED:  THIS IS NOT FORMAL FINANCIAL ADVICE.  ALERTS ARE NOT TAILORED TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WE ARE NOT PERSONALLY ADVISING YOU TO SWITCH OR NOT.

TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERTS ARE TO GIVE YOU OUR SENTIMENT ONLY OF A MARKET SECTOR USING STOCK INDICES AS THE BENCHMARK.

IN SHORT, THEY ARE CLIENT WIDE WARNINGS FOR YOU TO CONSIDER YOURSELF WHETHER TO SWITCH FROM CASH TO MARKETS OR MARKETS TO CASH – WE WILL NOT OFFER FORMAL ADVICE ON CHOOSING FUNDS – WE WILL ONLY TAKE YOUR INSTRUCTION TO SWITCH IN OR OUT OF MARKETS.

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