Investment Alerts

Published / Last Updated on 16/03/2019

Traffiic Light Investment WarningsYour Traffic Light Investment Alerts are here:

Red, Amber and Green Investment Warnings Service

Unique 'Traffic Light’ investment warnings on the Directors personal views of markets.

  • Market Rises - get in before markets rise
  • Falls - lock in profits and get out before markets fall.

Traffic Light Investment WarningsWe will not get it right all of the time, if we did then we would be billionaires.  We look at markets at crucial trigger points, assess the likelihood of rises or falls and give you our sentiment for that market.

Traffic Light Investment Sentiment Alert: Red/Neutral

16/03/2019 – Another yo-yo week with gains made across the board and recovering losses from last week.  The indices that we track are up, on average, nearly 9% since the last correction in early December.  FTSE 100 continues to bounce up and down on Brexit ‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’ news when sterling strengthens or weakens.  World markets appear to be taking their lead from US/China trade negotiations and to a lesser extent Brexit.  If FTSE 100 rises, Europe tends to rise and globally, if positive news comes out on trade discussions between the World’s two largest economies i.e. US/China stock markets rise, pushing global markets up.  The big news for Europe is ‘No Deal’ has been rejected by MPs and a third ‘meaningful’ vote on the deal will take place next week.  Is this a clever strategy by Theresa May to back MPs into a corner of their own making?  

Our theory:

  • MPs now have fundamentally voted for/agreed that the UK will only leave the EU with a deal.
  • The DUP want further guarantees on the Irish Back Stop and if their vote can be ‘turned’ to positive, May will get her way anyway.
  • That said, if MPs again vote ‘No’ next week, they will force May to ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit date.
  • Europe already knows that MPs have voted for a ‘Deal Only’ Brexit.  Why would Europe now offer further concessions? 
  • Faced with no extension or a short extension only and if the EU offers no further concessions (likely), MPs will then be on an acute time line of voting to accept May’s deal or leave the EU will no deal. 
  • Has May already, ‘privately’ agreed with the EU for them to offer no further concessions thus forcing MPs to vote her deal through or face a no deal exit?

Despite market rises, we still believe there is a huge risk for global downturn and even more Brexit chaos (just 13 days to go!!), we remain cash parked and wait it out to protect our capital from volatility.  However, we are still drip feeding in regular monthly savings whether markets rise or fall.


Stock Market Indices

  • FTSE 100 (UK) - last week 7,104, closing this week at 7,228 (+1.75%)
  • Dow Jones (USA) - last week 25,450, closing this week at 25,848 (+1.56%)
  • Dax (Germany) - last week 11,457, closing this week at 11,685 (+1.99%)
  • CAC (France) - last week 5,231, closing this week at 5,405 (+3.33%)
  • Shanghai Comp. (China) - last week 2,969, closing this week at 3,021 (+1.75%)
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) - last week 28,228, closing this week at 29,012 (+2.78%)
  • Nikkei (Japan) - last week 21,025, closing this week at 21,450 (+2.02%)

An average across the above indices of +2.17% this week.


What's the difference - Red/Amber/Green v Positive/Neutral/Negative?

  • Red/Amber/Green - is what we are doing right now with our own investments - THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU.  Red - we are in cash, Amber - we are holding our position, Green - we are invested.
  • Positive/Neutral/Negative Sentiment - is a our view of a particular investment sector for the coming months.  Positive - we think market will grow, Neutral - we think market will remain flat or are not sure, Negative - we think market will fall.
  • Video/Watch - Why do traffic light alerts now include sentiment indicators?  We explain ...

Our Market Sentiment View Overall: Red, De-risked/Dis-invested but still drip feeding

  • UK - 'RED' but neutral.
  • Europe - 'RED' but neutral.
  • North America - 'RED' but neutral.
  • Japan - 'RED' but neutral.
  • Far East/Asia (excl. Japan) - 'RED' but neutral.
  • Emerging Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China et al) - 'AMBER' and neutral.
  • Index Linked (Gilts/Bonds) - 'RED' and negative.
  • Fixed Interest Gilts/Bonds/Corporate Bonds) - 'RED' and negative.
  • Commercial Property - 'AMBER' and neutral.
  • Money Markets/Cash - 'AMBER' and neutral.

Sentiment List: What do larger fund managers think?  https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/globalassets/images/content-modules/funds/indicator_800.jpg  

THE CONTENTS OF THIS ALERT IS NOT ADVICE TO YOU PERSONALLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE. JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE GONE GREEN WITH OUR OWN MONEY AND DECIDED TO INVEST, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU SHOULD INVEST OR DISINVEST. OUR ASSET MIX, OUR RISK PROFILE AND OUR TOLERANCE TO LOSSES MAY BE VERY DIFFERENT TO YOUR OWN.

We repeat if you are not in markets, worried about having too much in cash and you want to go back into markets or start ‘drip feeding’ back in now that markets have fallen even further or if you are invested in markets and want to get out then please contact us with your instructions.


What Should I Do?  If you wish to switch funds:

  • For Gold clients who do not want mid-term advice, we will action your specific switch instructions at no charge.
  • For Gold clients who want mid-term advice on which funds to switch to/from, there is a charge (£200 per policy).
  • For Platinum clients we will review your funds and suggest switches at no additional charge.

CHECK YOUR LAST REVIEW REPORT:  To see what funds we recommended to you so that you know what you are in or what you decided to postpone investing in.

Want advice? Platinum Clients No Charge.  Other Clients, mid-term advice £200 per policy.

DIY: Log in to your investments/telephone the provider direct to instruct any fund switches.

Email us:  Check your last report and send us an email with your instruction.

All Too Complex but do not want to pay for “mid-term” advice from us, consider emailing the following text:

“Dear Ashley/Joanne

I instruct you to switch X%/£XX in the "YYYY" fund to the following “XXXX” fund(s) in line with my last fund review report.”

WARNING:  NO ADVICE GIVEN OR DEEMED TO BE GIVEN:  WE CANNOT ADVISE WHEN A GOOD TIME TO INVEST OR NOT IS – INVESTMENT ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY ON OUR OWN PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE MARKETS.  Please do not ask us for advice on what to do – if we knew exactly what will happen with markets, we would be billionaires.  This alert service is purely for information to let you know when we personally invest our own money in/out of markets.

Is a Traffic Light Investment Alert Financial Advice?

TRAFFIC LIGHT INVESTMENT ALERTS EXPLAINED:  THIS IS NOT FORMAL FINANCIAL ADVICE.  ALERTS ARE NOT TAILORED TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WE ARE NOT PERSONALLY ADVISING YOU TO SWITCH OR NOT.

TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERTS ARE TO GIVE YOU OUR SENTIMENT ONLY OF A MARKET SECTOR USING STOCK INDICES AS THE BENCHMARK.

IN SHORT, THEY ARE CLIENT WIDE WARNINGS FOR YOU TO CONSIDER YOURSELF WHETHER TO SWITCH FROM CASH TO MARKETS OR MARKETS TO CASH – WE WILL NOT OFFER FORMAL ADVICE ON CHOOSING FUNDS – WE WILL ONLY TAKE YOUR INSTRUCTION TO SWITCH IN OR OUT OF MARKETS.


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