UK House Prices Surprise Rise 0.5% in April 2023

The Nationwide Property Index was published yesterday for April 2023 with house prices starting, whether temporarily or not, to increase.

• 7 consecutive monthly house price falls until now.
• 0.5% average price rise in April 2023.
• House prices overall are still down -2.7% for the year, an improvement from -3.1% pa in March.

* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated).  Source Nationwide Property Index.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “While annual house price growth remained negative in April at -2.7%, there were tentative signs of a recovery with prices rising by 0.5% during the month (after taking account of seasonal effects). April’s monthly increase follows seven consecutive declines and leaves prices 4% below their August 2022 peak.

“Recent Bank of England data suggests that housing market activity remained subdued in the opening months of 2023, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in February nearly 40% below the level prevailing a year ago, and around a third lower than pre-pandemic levels. However, in recent months industry data on mortgage applications point to signs of a pickup.”

That said, today we have a report from online property portal Zoopla suggesting that house prices are now growing at 3% pa on average in the UK with some industrial suburban areas around Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds still growing at 5% pa.

Comment

Why the difference?  Different indices such as the Nationwide, Halifax, Zoopla, RICS and HM Land Registry have different criteria for the average properties that they have in the baskets of their index.  The reality is that house prices are falling but we may be at or near the bottom with greater property availability at lower prices, more mortgage deals available and perhaps one more interest rate rise expected.  In the meantime, wages are starting to increase and mortgage lenders are being more flexible in the amounts they will allow people to borrow.