March 23 UK Inflation Down 0.3% CPI 10.1% RPI 13.5%

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released CPI inflation figures this morning for March 2023 at 10.1% pa, down 0.3% pa from the surprise increase to 10.4% pa in February 2023. 

Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) are still in double digit figures at 10.1% pa in March 2023, down from 10.4% pa (February 2023), 10.2% pa (January 2023), 10.5% pa (December 2022)10.7% pa (November 2022) and 11.1% pa (October 2022).

It is still food and recreation that are keeping prices high as food inflation on its own is up nearly 20% pa when compared to last year.  Happily, other sector prices are falling now, transport and household service prices are falling fast and now other sectors such as alcohol, tobacco, clothing, footwear and restaurant prices are all falling.

Old Inflation Measure - Retail Prices Index (RPI)

The old measure of inflation RPI, an arithmetical mean of the average prices of a basket of household spending (rather than the geometric mean for CPI), also fell 0.3% to 13.5% from 13.8% pa (February 2023)

Comment

US inflation is down to 5.0% pa but UK inflation is still over 10% and no doubt the Bank of England will increase interest rates yet again on May 11^th from 4.25% pa to 4.5% pa or even 4.75%.

We maintain a period of high inflation could be around for another 5 years despite the Bank of England 6 months ago suggesting we will back on target within 2 years.  We suggest not.   A period of high inflation devalues fixed rate government debt (gilts) over the years meaning that when the government comes to repay its covid-19 and cost of living support debts in say 20 years time, their real-time cost is lower, just like an interest only mortgage if you are paying back the original mortgage capital borrowed 25 years ago.